Bills - Dolphins Preview

The Bills must rebound quickly from their crushing loss to the Patriots last week as they play the Dolphins on Thursday night in front of a  national audience. Good news for the Bills is that Miami is coming off a loss of their own and the game wasn't even close. The Titans laid a beatdown on the Dolphins, intercepting Ryan Tannehill three times and holding the rushing game to under 60 yards. The Bills will be trying to duplicate these results tomorrow night in hopes of resurrecting their season. Here's what to watch for:

-The CJ Spiller Show- If you asked Bills fans for one bright spot of this disappointment of a season it would be the emergence of CJ Spiller. Spiller leads the NFL in yards per carry with 7.3, the nearest running back to that is Adrian Peterson with 5.8. The problem that most Bills fans have is that even though he is producing at a very high level he does not get the ball in his hands enough. His 87 rushing attempts is less than any player in the top 20 in rushing, the next lowest is 123. The good news for Bills fans is that Spiller is likely in line for many more touches this week. Fred Jackson is out with a concussion so there is no dispute about how to divide the carries. Despite the Dolphins defense being 5th best in the league against the run, allowing only 94.2 yards per game, Chris Johnson of Titans had 126 yards and a touchdown against them just four days ago. Look for Spiller to light it up tonight.

-Stopping Reggie Bush- The Dolphins have a very flashy running back of their own in Reggie Bush. He sits at 21st in the league in rushing despite being banged up at points this season. Bush was actually benched for fumbling the ball in their last game, finishing with only 4 carries for 21 yards. The best way to describe Bush is a playmaker. He is very fast and can slip tackles to pick up big chunks of yards. Last season in Buffalo Bush had his best game of the season rushing for over 200 yards. The key to limiting his yards is to keep contain and force him to run inside, eliminate the cutbacks lanes, and do not miss tackles. Easier said than done of course for a Bills defense that has been pitiful against the run this season. If they can stop the run and force the Dolphins to put the ball into the hands of their rookie quarterback they will be on the right track for a win.

-Glenn v. Wake- Bills rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn will have his hands full in this one going against Dolphins defensive end Cameron Wake. Glenn has been serviceable this season in pass blocking but Wake in one of the best pass rushers in the league. Wake has a total of 8.5 sacks this season which puts him 6th in the league in that department. The Dolphins defensive scheme relies heavily on complex blitz schemes to throw off offensive lineman. The Bills are one of the top teams in the league in protecting their quarterback, but it will still be important to get the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hands fast.

-Manage the game Chan!- Despite having a better showing against the Patriots last week there were still many areas for the coaches and players to improve upon. First, the Bills cannot commit the same amount of penalties as they did last week an expect to be in the game. Chan Gailey's club has always been one of the most disciplined when it terms to infractions so I will let them slide one time, but if something like that becomes common changes will have to be made. Second, Chan needs to get the play calling under control. Get the ball into the hands of CJ Spiller by whatever means possible. This coach is supposed to be an offensive mastermind, lets see it. Lastly, enough with the confusion and  wasted timeouts on the sideline. Chan needs to coach with confidence and look like he knows what he is doing and it may go a long way in the minds of Bills fans calling for his job.

-Confuse Ryan Tannehill-  One of the focuses of a team preparing to play a rookie quarterback is to disguise coverage and throw things at them that they have never seen before. This is the job of Bills defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. As stated many times before, Wannstedt's strategy is to cover the bad quarterbacks and rush the bad ones. Well, right now Tannehill falls into the later category so take the leashes off and let this defense go and get him. Despite dealing with a knee injury Tannehill is accurate in the roll out, do not let him escape the pocket.

- For some reason despite the teams struggles this season I am very amped for this game. It could be because it is a primetime game, or because Spiller is posed for a breakout, or because they did not get creamed against the Patriots last week. It is probably a little bit of everything, but whatever the case is I cannot wait until kickoff. I think fans are in for an offensive shootout which just adds to its entertainment value. I am a believer and I think they turn it around today by squishing the fish. Bills- 35 Dolphins-17

Bills-Patriots Reactions

The Bills had victory in their grasp Sunday afternoon and let it get away. Trailing by 6 with just over two minutes remaining and two timeouts the Bills got the ball with a chance at turning their season around. They had been in a shootout with the Patriots all day, being down double digits on multiple occasions and finding a way to climb back each time the Pats scored. Their offense looked the best that it has in the past two seasons by ripping off chunks of yards in the pass and run game. In the end it was a moot point as Ryan Fitzpatrick dropped back and fired a pass into the end zone intended for TJ Graham that was intercepted by Devin McCourty (picture above). On the surface it is another heartbraking loss for Buffalo fans, but there are some things that can be taken out of this one:

-Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of his best games as a Bill. His stat line was 27/40 for 337 yards 2 TDs 1 Int . He also had a fumble early in the game that was recovered by the Patriots and that led to a rushing touchdown after two pass interference penalties in the end zone. The most important thing was that his accuracy was greatly improved. A knock on Fitz all season long has been on his accuracy in long to intermediate range throws. That was not the case Sunday as he was hitting all day long on throws in the 10-25 yard range, especially over the middle.

-The reason the final pass was an interception route is because TJ Graham ran the wrong route. Graham even admitted to doing so in post game interviews. It was a judgement call by Graham whether he should have dropped behind McCourty or crossed in front of him. Fitz threw the ball to the spot where Graham was supposed to be for what likely would have been a touchdown, only problem that Graham was not in the area. This morning on WGR 550 Fitz took some of the blame for the pick, as any good quarterback does, stating that it is his job to make sure the offense is all on the right page. The guy I chose to blame is Chan Gailey for making that play call in the first place. That is a rookie wide receiver that has not seen much playing time because of the fact he has had trouble picking up the offense, why put him in that position? I am not ignoring the fact that CJ Spiller was open on the play around the ten yard line. Fans will say that the pass should have gone to Spiller, but hindsight is 20/20. If Graham runs the right route chances are the game is over.

-Another game and another electric performance by CJ Spiller. With only 13 combined touches in the game he had 131 all purpose yards! This guy need to get more touches in the game because he is one of the best playmakers in the NFL right now. He will get his share of playing time this week with Fred Jackson suffering a concussion in the final drive of the game. Jackson has already been ruled out for Thursday which means that with a short week of rest Spiller will be the man in the spotlight on the national stage against Miami on Thursday night. Speaking of Jackson his game was nothing to sneeze at either, totaling 20 touches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jackson also had two fumbles on the day one of which was recovered by the Patriots. The team bailed him out on both occasions first by forcing a three and out and then Eric Wood ripping the ball away from Patriots defenders in the bottom of the pile. Fred Jackson is the heart of this team and a very good running back but CJ Spiller may just be turning into one of the premier players in the game.

-What was with those penalties? A Bills team that is usually quite disciplined completely imploded in the penalty department. Some of the calls were questionable at best. On the Patriots first score George Wilson was flagged for pass interference in the end zone even though he barely touched his man. Later Stephon Gilmore was flagged on a deep pass when he got tangled up with his man, even though the pass was clearly not catchable. Even so, that does not justify 14 penalties for 148 yards. If they only commit half of those, still more than their average, they would have been in a much better position to win the game.

-Why are we having a third string defensive end cover the best tight end in the league at all let alone in the red zone? Easy call for Tom Brady, just toss it up there and let Gronkowski come down with it. Dave Wannstedt has to be better at play calling than that.

- The offensive line did not look like they were ready to play when the game started. They took several penalties and Eric Wood let Vince Wilfork get by him and force a fumble on Fitzpatrick which led to Patriots points. Once the game got going however they seemed to snap out of it. Wood recovered and held Wilfork in check for much of the game. The left side of the line was a force in the run blocking department opening gaps for Spiller and Jackson to rip of chunks of yards. The one man that seemed to struggle a little bit upon first watching was Kraig Urbik which leads me to wonder how much his injury is really bothering him.

- As soon as the interception was thrown many Bills fans found themselves saying "there goes the season." That may be likely but there is still a chance that this team can make the playoffs (Cue Jim Mora: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM ) .  It has been widely documented that the NFC is dominating the AFC in head to head games this season. That means that the record to get a wild card birth goes from 10-6 or 9-7 to likely 8-8 or even 7-9. The Bills are 3-6 heading into the final seven games of the season. The quality of their opponents drops off significantly from this point forward. The Dolphins(2) started strong but have dropped off recently getting blown out by the Titans last week. The Jets have looked awful since they played the Bills in week one, their offense cannot move the ball to save their lives. The Colts look to have rebounded much sooner than expected and pose a threat on offense but they are not very deep on defense The Seahawks are the opposite, with a very good defense but an offense that struggles to move the ball outside of Marshawn Lynch. The Jaguars are just plain bad. The Rams are solid on both sides of the ball even forcing the feared 49'ers into a tie last week. So even though it may be too soon to count the Bills out they must win between 5-7 of their remaining games to have a shot. Whether they are capable of doing this I will leave up to you.

Bills at Patriots Preview

Here we go Bills fans, the second of the dreadful 'games' against the Patriots this season. With the teams' poor play most Bills fans are already tossing this one in the loss column if they didn't before the season even started. There are countless stat lines that illustrate just how bad the Bills have been against the Patriots in the past decade but we do not need to go over them, a true Bills fan understands the pain. That being said there is always hope here in Buffalo. Someday things will get turned around and the team will be back in the playoffs. Could today be that turning point? Highly doubtful, but here's to hoping. A few things to watch for:

The turnover battle: The Bills looked solid in their home game against the Patriots when they were winning the turnover battle. They forced fumbles on Gronkowski and Welker and the Patriots looked defeated. Then a costly fumble going into the half and the momentum shifts away from the Bills for the duration of the game. The only win in recent memory against the Pats came last year where they intercepted Tom Brady four times. Win the turnover battle and who knows what will unfold.

Coverage: Dave Wannstedt has stated on numerous occasions that his strategy is to blitz the bad quarterbacks and cover the good ones. That means you will be dropping everyone into coverage this week. The Bills secondary has been abused to this point in the season to even marginal quarterbacks. Starting cornerback Aaron Williams is out this week and Leodis McKelvin will return to the starting lineup. This may actually help the Bills. Williams has struggles mightily this far into his career, and even though McKelvin has had his share of problems he has shown glimpses of the guy the Bills thought they were drafting. Jairus Byrd needs to do what he does best, watch the QB and jump routes.

Run the Ball!!!- Chan Gailey was under fire this past week for abandoning the run game against the Texans last week. We have the best running back in the NFL in terms of yards per carry in CJ Spiller and they refuse to give him his share of carries. The Patriots aren't known for their defense like the Texans, run the ball and you could control the clock and keep the ball out of Brady's hands.

Protect Fitz: The Bills offensive line can be very good when they are healthy. That being said in their last meeting against the Patriots the line got manhandled. This matchup is probably one of Vince Wilfork's favorite because he always seems to wreak havoc in the middle of the line (see picture-he can even cover). Protect Fitzpatrick and he will be much more effective. Fitz has thrown ten interceptions in the last three games against a Pats secondary that is subpar.

Cover the Tight Ends: Williamsville native Rob Gronkowski is the Bills kryptonite. In the past three matchups he averages over 100 yards and 1 TD per game. They need to cover Gronk. The Bills do not cover tight ends well. Last week they were abused by Owen Daniels & Co. with Schaub slipping out on bootlegs and play action fakes to find his tight end wide open. Linebacker Nigel Bradham was the man who bit on a bunch of those fakes and I have to believe that was something the Bills worked on this week. They are catching a break because their other dynamic tight end Aaron Hernandez will miss the game due to injury.

Banged up at DE: Starting defensive end Mark Anderson will be out once again after suffering a setback in his rehabilitation of his knee injury. The man who has been in for Anderson has been Chris Kelsay, that changes this week. Kelsay injured his neck during practice this week and is officially inactive. That means the position will see a rotation of Kyle Moore, Shawne Merriman, and even Spencer Johnson. Moore will see the majority of the play time and that could be a problem when defending the run. His pass rush abilities have been a pleasant surprise this season but his run defense needs some work. Look for the Patriots to run the ball left often.

Look for more of the same from the Bills in this game. Maybe keep it close to begin with and maybe even have a lead, give the fans hope. Then the wheels come off as per usual and it turns into a blowout. Patriots- 42 Bills- 28

Week 10 NFL Picks

Last week I had my best week to date going 10-4 in the picks for an overall 34-21 record. My upset pick still did not hit. It was a long shot for the mess that is the Cowboys to beat an undefeated team, but it was a close game. The field goal fest ended with a 19-13 Falcons victory. Here is my picks for this week:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville- Colts
San Diego at Tampa Bay- Buccaneers
Tennessee at Miami- Dolphins
Oakland at Baltimore- Ravens
Denver at Carolina- Broncos
New York Giants at Cincinnati- Bengals *upset alert
Detroit at Minnesota- Vikings
Atlanta at New Orleans- Falcons
New York Jets at Seattle- Seahawks
Dallas at Philadelphia- Eagles
St. Louis at San Francisco- 49'ers
Houston at Chicago- Bears
Kansas City at Pittsburgh- Steelers

Buffalo at New England- Bills *this is the equivalent to picks suicide, but I love my Bills and I just cannot live with writing "Patriots" next to this game.

NFL Week 9 picks

Last week I went 9-5 to improve my overall record to 24-17. One of my upset picks hit with the Browns beating the Chargers in a brutal game. The Redskins and RGIII were not able to get the ball moving against the Steelers and lost a close game. This week:

Kansas City at San Diego- Chargers
Detroit at Jacksonville- Lions
Chicago at Tennessee- Bears
Denver at Cincinnati- Broncos
Carolina at Washington- Redskins
Baltimore at Cleveland- Ravens
Miami at Indianapolis- Dolphins
Minnesota at Seattle- Seahawks
Tampa Bay at Oakland- Buccaneers
Pittsburgh at New York Giants- Giants
Dallas at Atlanta- Cowboys *upset alert
Philadelphia at New Orleans- Saints

Buffalo at Houston- Texans

Bills at Texans Preview

The Bills have the daunting task of playing the best team in the AFC in the Houston Texans this week. On paper things do not look promising for the Bills. The Texans are good on both sides of the ball. Their offense is second in the league in points per game and they are going up against a Bills defense that gives up the most points per game in the league. Arian Foster despite nagging injuries all season is top 5 in the league in rushing. Their defense gives up the third least yards per game in the NFL and they have the league's sack leader in J.J. Watt with 9.5 sacks in seven games played. Despite how it looks, it is the job of a Bills fan to hold out hope that maybe a miracle could happen. So what are the key areas of the game the Bills would need to capitalize on?

Contain the run: Arian Foster is the real deal. The Texans will feed him the ball all day and keep biting off chunks of yards. Their success in the run game allows them to control the clock, wear down the opposing defense, and set up the play action passing attack. The Bills have been awful against the run this year. In their last game they took Chris Johnson, who was having a mediocre season at best, and made him look like he was back in 2009. The defensive line needs to take up blockers and the linebackers need to step up and fill their gaps, something they haven't done all season.

Mario's return: If there is one player that should be feeling the pressure this week it is Mario Williams. Scrutinized greatly so far for his poor play after signing a massive contract he now gets to go up against the team that let him walk. There is reason to be optimistic for increased production from Williams this week. During the bye week he had a procedure done on his injured wrist that has eliminated the pain and boosted his spirits greatly. He goes against a right tackle that was a late round pick last season and has struggled blocking rushers. We have heard this before but the matchup is favorable and the motivation is there, maybe this could be the week that super mario takes over.

Hairston for Pears: As much as the injury to right tackle Eric Pears looks like a blow to the offensive line it may require another look. Pears has actually struggled greatly this season. Now that Pears is out injured Chris Hairston, who looks like a solid right tackle option, steps in to face the vaunted Texans defense. Hairston has had his share of playing time and has held his own. He started last season at left tackle when Demetrius Bell went down with injury and more recently for Cordy Glenn. Hairston actually played most of the preseason and training camp with the first team at right tackle and it is reasonable to believe he could step in and not skip a beat. This could be a case of addition by subtraction.

Efficient Offence: To have any hope against this Texans defense Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense needs to be efficient. They need to limit the turnovers that have killed them in other games this year, most recently against the Titans. Utilize their strengths in the run game to create sustained drives of their own, keeping the defense on the field as little as possible. The Bills offensive line when healthy is one of the most underrated in the league. I have faith that they will be able to keep Fitz on his feet and open up holes for Spiller and Jackson to hit.

Prediction- as much as I love my football team there are just too many obstacles for them to overcome in this one. I would love for them to prove me wrong. Win this game and it could be the turning point for this generation of Bills players and fans. 'Any given Sunday' is the approach you should be taking for this game. I have believed in this saying far too many times for it to change my prediction. Texans- 37 Bills- 23

Bills' Pears banged up

The Bills were hoping that the offensive line that they started the season with would finally be back intact following their week 8 bye. Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik appear to be ready to return this week from their respective injuries suffered against the Patriots. Now another injured player is receiving some attention. Erik Pears saw a specialist this week for a hip injury that has has been bugging him all season. This could provide explanation for the relatively poor play he has shown so far this season as compared to last season.
The team is going to need their best blockers on the field against a stout Texans defense. The Houston defensive unit has terrorized opposing offenses all season long. The group is led by NFL sack leader J.J. Watt who has 9.5 sacks to this point in the season. It remains to be seen if Pears will miss any playing time. If he does it would mean that Chris Hairston, who has been starting for the injured Glenn at left tackle, would move over to right tackle. This was a combination that the Bills used throughout training camp and the preseason because Pears was recovering from groin surgery. It is not unreasonable to believe that Hairston could actually be an improvement at the position. Hairston had filled in admirably at left tackle, especially excelling in run blocking. The area he struggled in was in pass blocking against speed rushers. If he could learn to grow at the right tackle position it could be a perfect fit for him and the Bills.