The turnover battle: The Bills looked solid in their home game against the Patriots when they were winning the turnover battle. They forced fumbles on Gronkowski and Welker and the Patriots looked defeated. Then a costly fumble going into the half and the momentum shifts away from the Bills for the duration of the game. The only win in recent memory against the Pats came last year where they intercepted Tom Brady four times. Win the turnover battle and who knows what will unfold.
Coverage: Dave Wannstedt has stated on numerous occasions that his strategy is to blitz the bad quarterbacks and cover the good ones. That means you will be dropping everyone into coverage this week. The Bills secondary has been abused to this point in the season to even marginal quarterbacks. Starting cornerback Aaron Williams is out this week and Leodis McKelvin will return to the starting lineup. This may actually help the Bills. Williams has struggles mightily this far into his career, and even though McKelvin has had his share of problems he has shown glimpses of the guy the Bills thought they were drafting. Jairus Byrd needs to do what he does best, watch the QB and jump routes.
Run the Ball!!!- Chan Gailey was under fire this past week for abandoning the run game against the Texans last week. We have the best running back in the NFL in terms of yards per carry in CJ Spiller and they refuse to give him his share of carries. The Patriots aren't known for their defense like the Texans, run the ball and you could control the clock and keep the ball out of Brady's hands.
Protect Fitz: The Bills offensive line can be very good when they are healthy. That being said in their last meeting against the Patriots the line got manhandled. This matchup is probably one of Vince Wilfork's favorite because he always seems to wreak havoc in the middle of the line (see picture-he can even cover). Protect Fitzpatrick and he will be much more effective. Fitz has thrown ten interceptions in the last three games against a Pats secondary that is subpar.
Cover the Tight Ends: Williamsville native Rob Gronkowski is the Bills kryptonite. In the past three matchups he averages over 100 yards and 1 TD per game. They need to cover Gronk. The Bills do not cover tight ends well. Last week they were abused by Owen Daniels & Co. with Schaub slipping out on bootlegs and play action fakes to find his tight end wide open. Linebacker Nigel Bradham was the man who bit on a bunch of those fakes and I have to believe that was something the Bills worked on this week. They are catching a break because their other dynamic tight end Aaron Hernandez will miss the game due to injury.
Banged up at DE: Starting defensive end Mark Anderson will be out once again after suffering a setback in his rehabilitation of his knee injury. The man who has been in for Anderson has been Chris Kelsay, that changes this week. Kelsay injured his neck during practice this week and is officially inactive. That means the position will see a rotation of Kyle Moore, Shawne Merriman, and even Spencer Johnson. Moore will see the majority of the play time and that could be a problem when defending the run. His pass rush abilities have been a pleasant surprise this season but his run defense needs some work. Look for the Patriots to run the ball left often.
Look for more of the same from the Bills in this game. Maybe keep it close to begin with and maybe even have a lead, give the fans hope. Then the wheels come off as per usual and it turns into a blowout. Patriots- 42 Bills- 28
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