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Sunday, October 7, 2012

Bills - 49'ers Preview

 After an embarrassing loss to the Patriots the Bills roll into week 5 ready to take on their toughest competition yet, the San Francisco 49'ers. Standing at 2-2 the Bills are tied with the Jets and Pats for the lead in the AFC East but things sure do not feel that way right now. The list of problems this team has is bigger than expected: Fitz accuracy problems, injury riddled backfield, Mario who?, steep learning curve for young DBs, and now injuries on the O-line(which seemingly was the bright spot of the team until last week). The 49'ers on the other hand are on the up and up. Coming off a season where they probably should have gone to the Super Bowl they now are at 3-1 and are fighting the surprising Cardinals for control of the NFC West. Their borderline dominate defense holds them in games for their conservative yet efficient offense to take control. With all that being said what are the keys to the game that the Bills will have to hit on to win:

Turnovers: This is an obvious one for any game in any sport. Win the turnover battle and you stand a good chance of winning the game. Last week when the Bills were winning the turnover battle they were winning the game and when that changed...well you saw what happend. Bad news for Bills fans is that San Fran is notoriously good in this department. Last year the 49'34s led the league in turnover differential with a whopping +28, and the Bills were a mere +1. If the Bills want to win this game this is going to have to change.

Game Managers: The QB battle this week is an interesting one. Alex Smith who is often thought of as a conservative quarterback seems to be opening it up a little this season. More importantly he has done this without turning the ball over with only one interception tossed. Compare that to Ryan Fitzpatrick who has the second most interceptions of anyone in the league and 2 more than Smith threw all last season. Surprisingly enough Fitz leads the league in passing TDs. Yes you read that right. If he can stop turning the ball over this offense can be just as deadly as it was to start last season.

O-line Shuffle: The Bills lost two starters on the offensive line against New England in LT  Cordy Glenn and RG Craig Urbik. Their replacements Chris Hairston and Chad Rinehart are going to have to step in and allow the offense to not skip a beat. That can be hard to do against a 49'ers Defensive line that tends to dominate people, especially in the run game giving up less than 80 yards a game on the ground last year and only 3 TDs.

 D-line pressure: why isn't it working? If I could answer this question I would be on the Bills coaching staff right now. The Bills paid well over $100 million to ensure they had one of the best lines in football and they have been anything but that. The pressure doesn't all fall on the shoulders of Mario Williams but a lot of it does. This guy was supposed to be our savior and he is on pace for 6 sacks this season! If they could turn things around and be what they have the potential to be it is going to be a rough day for anyone going against the Bills this season.

Stop the run: The 49'ers are one of 3 teams better than the Bills in rush yards per game with 167. The Bills were holding people in check against the run until last week when they gave up 240+ yards on the ground.  If they can play more like they were prior they could be in good shape. This also ties in with personnel on the field. Against the Pats the Bills were in a mostly nickel defense to counteract Tom Brady and that left gaping holes in the defense for the running backs to find. Against the 49'ers I expect this to change. Plan on seeing a bunch more of Kelvin Sheppard & co.

My Prediction:Unfortunately the 49'ers Defense is just too much to handle. 49'ers- 27  Bills-10

What do you think? Do the Bills have a chance? Leave a comment and vote in the poll at the bottom of the home page!


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